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03/11/2010 - Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Less than 24 hours after picking up just their second win all-time in the Mountain West Conference Tournament, the Air Force Falcons are back on the hardwood of the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas as they clash with top-seeded and eighth-ranked New Mexico in the quarterfinals of the 11th annual event this afternoon.
The Falcons, who had just a single league win this season and are the ninth seed in the tourney, completely confused eighth-seeded Wyoming yesterday and came up with a stunning 59-40 win over the Cowboys. It was the fewest points allowed by the academy this season and by far the fewest points scored by the Pokes as well. The victory snapped a nine-game losing streak by Air Force, which began just after the squad's first and only MWC win, a 70-63 triumph over those same Cowboys at home back on January 30th.
As for the highly-touted Lobos, they are under the direction of Steve Alford who earned himself MWC Coach of the Year honors for the second year in a row as he guided the program to a spectacular 28-3 record and a 14-2 mark in league play after opening the MWC schedule with back-to-back losses. UNM is currently riding a 14-game win streak and a win today would not only set a new school record for wins in a single season, it would give the program its second-longest run in school history behind a 17-game streak set in 1967-68.
With respect to the all-time series between these two schools on the hardwood, the Lobos have won six straight over Air Force and now own a commanding 47-18 mark overall. However, the academy gave UNM a scare this season when it allowed the Lobos just a 59-56 win at home in The Pit, after Air Force rolled over at home a month earlier in a 73-50 decision.
The winner of this matchup heads to the semifinals on Friday to clash with the winner of the Colorado State/San Diego State battle.
The defense by the Falcons stunned Wyoming yesterday, holding the Pokes to a mere 21 points in the first half and an even weaker 19 points after the break. Wyoming finished the meeting shooting just 2-of-16 behind the three-point line, got off a total of only 33 field goal chances and sank a meager 8-of-19 at the charity stripe. Leading the way for Air Force were Grant Parker and Michael Lyons with 15 and 11 points, respectively, as the squad actually beat the Cowboys on the glass, 25-21. Parker continues to be the leading scorer for the Falcons with his 13.1 ppg, hitting 47.9 percent of his field goal attempts, while Evan Washington checks in with 10.2 ppg and combines with Parker to account for more than nine rebounds per game. Unfortunately for the academy, that still leaves the group with a rebounding deficit of nearly four boards per outing.
The Lobos, winners of this tournament back in 2005, have in their lineup the top player in the league in Darington Hobson. Not only was Hobson named the MWC Newcomer of the Year, the junior also picked up the award for MWC Player of the Year after leading the conference in rebounding with 10.1 per game and placing third in scoring (14.9 ppg) and third in assists (4.8 apg). One of the most well-rounded players to hit the MWC landscape in several years, Hobson was a beast in the final month and a half of the regular season with his 18.2 ppg, 11.0 rpg and 5.8 apg over the last nine outings. But the Lobos are so much more than just Hobson as they also get significant contributions from Roman Martinez (14.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg) who is a 42.9 percent shooter behind the three-point line, followed by Dairese Gary and Phillip McDonald with 12.4 and 10.9 ppg, respectively. Gary, also accounted for 123 assists to take some of the pressure off Hobson. Perhaps the most impressive part of the Lobos is that they had the same starting lineup for every single game this season.
<< Cowboys tangle with Wildcats in Big 12 quarterfinals
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Quarterfinal action of the Big 12
Conference Tournament pits the ninth-ranked and second-seeded Kansas State
Wildcats against the seventh-seeded Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Awaiting the winner of this tilt is a
<< Redskins add TE Ryan
Ashburn, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Redskins agreed to terms with
tight end Sean Ryan on Thursday. Details of the contract were not disclosed.
Ryan appeared in 10 games, making eight starts, for Kansas City last season
and ha
<< Redskins sign free-agent tight end Sean Ryan
ASHBURN, Va. (AP) -Free-agent tight end Sean Ryan has signed with the Washington Redskins.Ryan caught 14 passes for 135 yards and two touchdowns for the Kansas City Chiefs last season.He has 26 catches for 240 yards and those two TDs in six NFL seas
<< Noh among four British Open qualifiers
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Less than a week after winning his
first European Tour event, Seung-yul Noh was one of four qualifiers at the
International Final Qualifying for the British Open, which will be contested
at St.
Miners open C-USA Tournament play against Knights >>
Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Winners of 14th straight games, the top-seeded
and 25th-ranked Texas El Paso Miners set their sites on a C-USA Tournament
championship, starting with tonight's quarterfinal-round matchup against the
ninth-seeded UCF
Longhorns and Bears meet in Big 12 Tournament >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 21st-ranked Baylor Bears are seeded
third in the Big 12 Conference Tournament, and they will begin action in the
event tonight with a quarterfinal-round matchup against the sixth-seeded Texas
Longhorns.
Vols open SEC Tournament against hapless Tigers >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 15th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers are set
to take on the LSU Tigers in the first round of the 2010 SEC Tournament.
The winner of this contest will move on to face Ole Miss, the West Division's
second seed,
Cornhuskers battle Red Raiders in Big 12 Tournament action >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 23rd-ranked Texas A&M Aggies are the
fourth-seeded team in the Big 12 Conference Tournament, and they will play a
quarterfinal-round game against the surprising 12th-seeded Nebraska
Cornhuskers today.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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